EWMA · GARCH · VaR · ES · Backtesting

Market risk modeling.
In Python. From scratch.

Five Jupyter notebooks, a reusable Python module, a live Streamlit dashboard, and a complete PDF guide / ebook — everything you need to implement professional market risk models.

Get the Code Pack — €39 → Try Live Demo ↓
One-time payment, no subscription 5 Jupyter notebooks included Reusable Python module
5
Jupyter Notebooks
4
VaR Models
PDF
Guide / Ebook
3
Backtesting Tests
€39
One-Time Price

Everything included.

A complete, structured Python implementation of market risk — not scattered snippets, but a cohesive, professional pack.

📓

5 Jupyter Notebooks

Step-by-step walkthroughs for returns & volatility, EWMA & GARCH, VaR models, Expected Shortfall, and VaR backtesting. Run them top to bottom and understand every line.

⚙️

Reusable Python Module

A clean market_risk/ package with data.py, volatility.py, var.py, expected_shortfall.py, and backtesting.py. Import into your own projects immediately.

🖥

Streamlit Dashboard

A full interactive risk dashboard (streamlit_app.py) for exploring any ticker — VaR, ES, GARCH volatility, and backtesting results in a live UI. Also deployed as a free live demo.

📖

Complete PDF Guide / Ebook

A teaching manual with full LaTeX equations, implementation notes, model interpretation, and risk manager language. Covers every concept in the notebooks.

🎓

Professor Exercises + Answers

A full set of exercises with worked solutions, suitable for self-study or classroom use. Covers all five topic areas with analytical and implementation questions.

📋

Requirements & Quick Start

A pinned requirements.txt and README with a one-command install and core usage examples. Run the dashboard or notebooks in minutes.

Five notebooks. One complete workflow.

Each notebook builds on the previous one — from raw price data to a professionally backtested risk model.

01 · Returns & Volatility.

Start from raw prices. Compute daily simple returns, convert to dollar losses, and estimate rolling volatility. Understand why volatility clustering makes constant-vol models dangerous.

⬡ Simple return construction from OHLCV data
⬡ Dollar loss series from portfolio value
⬡ Rolling 21-day sample volatility
⬡ Volatility clustering and fat-tail diagnostics

02 · EWMA & GARCH Volatility.

Move beyond rolling windows. Implement RiskMetrics EWMA (λ=0.94) and fit a GARCH(1,1) model. Forecast conditional volatility forward and compare model behavior during stress periods.

⬡ EWMA volatility with configurable lambda
⬡ GARCH(1,1) estimation via arch library
⬡ Conditional volatility vs EWMA comparison
⬡ 10-day GARCH volatility forecast

03 · Value at Risk.

Implement and compare four VaR approaches on a real portfolio. Understand the assumptions behind each model and when each one breaks down — the core of any practical risk workflow.

⬡ Historical simulation VaR
⬡ Normal-parametric VaR
⬡ EWMA-parametric VaR
⬡ GARCH-parametric VaR

04 · Expected Shortfall.

Go beyond VaR. Compute Expected Shortfall (CVaR) — the average loss in the worst α% of days. Understand why regulators and institutions now prefer ES over VaR for tail risk measurement.

⬡ Historical ES from the empirical loss tail
⬡ Normal-parametric ES using the ES formula
⬡ VaR vs ES comparison and interpretation
⬡ Coherent risk measure properties explained

05 · VaR Backtesting.

A VaR model that can't be validated is just a guess. Implement exception counting, Kupiec unconditional coverage test, Christoffersen independence test, and a Basel traffic-light summary.

⬡ VaR exception identification and counting
⬡ Kupiec unconditional coverage (LR test)
⬡ Christoffersen independence test
⬡ Basel traffic-light: Green / Amber / Red zones

Try the live dashboard before you buy.

The full Streamlit app is deployed and free to use. Enter any ticker, set your portfolio value and confidence level, and see VaR, ES, GARCH volatility, and backtesting results in real time. The code pack gives you everything behind it.

Try It Here ↓

Use the live app here.

Run the Streamlit dashboard directly on this page. The full source code is included in the paid pack.

Built for three audiences.

Whether you're studying for the FRM, working in risk, or building Python tools — this pack gives you exactly what you need.

🎓

Students & FRM Candidates

Learn the theory and the implementation together — not one without the other. Exercises and answers included.

📊

Risk Analysts & Professionals

A clean, reusable Python module you can adapt for internal workflows. EWMA, GARCH, four VaR models, ES, and Basel backtesting — production-quality implementations.

🐍

Python Developers in Finance

A well-structured reference codebase for financial risk modeling. Clean module architecture, typed functions, and a Streamlit app you can extend or deploy immediately.

Every model that matters for market risk.

The full toolkit for daily market risk measurement — from volatility estimation to regulatory backtesting.

📉

Rolling & EWMA Volatility

21-day rolling vol and RiskMetrics EWMA with configurable lambda. Annualized output, clustering diagnostics, and side-by-side comparison.

GARCH(1,1) Modeling

Full GARCH estimation via the arch library, conditional volatility extraction, and multi-day forecasting. Fits to any equity, crypto, or FX returns series.

🎯

Four VaR Models

Historical simulation, normal-parametric, EWMA-parametric, and GARCH-parametric VaR. Compare models on the same portfolio in a single function call.

🔭

Expected Shortfall

Historical and parametric ES — the coherent tail risk measure now required under Basel III. Always paired with VaR so you see both metrics together.

VaR Backtesting Suite

Exception counting, Kupiec LR test, Christoffersen independence test, and Basel traffic-light zones. Know whether your model actually works.

🖥

Live Streamlit Dashboard

Interactive risk dashboard deployable in one command. Enter any ticker and get a full risk report. Already live — try it before you buy.

One price. Everything included.

No subscriptions. No locked features. Pay once, own it forever.

✦ Complete Pack
Market Risk with Python — Code Pack
Volatility, VaR, ES, and backtesting. For students, analysts, and Python developers.
39
One-time payment  ·  Instant download  ·  All formats included
5 Jupyter notebooks (returns, EWMA/GARCH, VaR, ES, backtesting)
Reusable market_risk/ Python module (5 files)
Full Streamlit dashboard source code
complete PDF guide / ebook with LaTeX equations
Professor exercises with worked answers
4 VaR models + 2 ES models implemented
Kupiec + Christoffersen backtesting tests
Get the Code Pack — €39 →
Secure checkout via Stripe  ·  Try the live demo first
🔒 Secure Stripe checkout
⚡ Instant download after payment
♾️ No recurring fees, ever
📓 Jupyter + Python source included

Market risk modeling that actually runs.

Five notebooks. A reusable module. A live dashboard. A complete PDF guide / ebook. Everything to go from zero to a production-quality market risk workflow in Python.