EWMA · GARCH · VaR · ES · Backtesting

Market risk modeling.
In Python. From scratch.

Five Jupyter notebooks, a reusable Python module, and a complete PDF guide / ebook — everything you need to implement professional market risk models.

Get the Code Pack — €39 →
✓ One-time payment, no subscription ✓ 5 Jupyter notebooks included ✓ Reusable Python module
5
Jupyter Notebooks
4
VaR Models
PDF
Guide / Ebook
3
Backtesting Tests
€39
One-Time Price

Everything included.

A complete, structured Python implementation of market risk — not scattered snippets, but a cohesive, professional pack.

📓

5 Jupyter Notebooks

Step-by-step walkthroughs for returns & volatility, EWMA & GARCH, VaR models, Expected Shortfall, and VaR backtesting. Run them top to bottom and understand every line.

⚙️

Reusable Python Module

A clean market_risk/ package with data.py, volatility.py, var.py, expected_shortfall.py, and backtesting.py. Import into your own projects immediately.

🖥

Streamlit Dashboard

A full interactive risk dashboard (streamlit_app.py) for exploring any ticker — VaR, ES, GARCH volatility, and backtesting results in a live UI.

📖

Complete PDF Guide / Ebook

A teaching manual with full LaTeX equations, implementation notes, model interpretation, and risk manager language. Covers every concept in the notebooks.

🎓

Professor Exercises + Answers

A full set of exercises with worked solutions, suitable for self-study or classroom use. Covers all five topic areas with analytical and implementation questions.

📋

Requirements & Quick Start

A pinned requirements.txt and README with a one-command install and core usage examples. Run the dashboard or notebooks in minutes.

Five notebooks. One complete workflow.

Each notebook builds on the previous one — from raw price data to a professionally backtested risk model.

01 · Returns & Volatility.

Start from raw prices. Compute daily simple returns, convert to dollar losses, and estimate rolling volatility. Understand why volatility clustering makes constant-vol models dangerous.

⬡ Simple return construction from OHLCV data
⬡ Dollar loss series from portfolio value
⬡ Rolling 21-day sample volatility
⬡ Volatility clustering and fat-tail diagnostics

02 · EWMA & GARCH Volatility.

Move beyond rolling windows. Implement RiskMetrics EWMA (λ=0.94) and fit a GARCH(1,1) model. Forecast conditional volatility forward and compare model behavior during stress periods.

⬡ EWMA volatility with configurable lambda
⬡ GARCH(1,1) estimation via arch library
⬡ Conditional volatility vs EWMA comparison
⬡ 10-day GARCH volatility forecast

03 · Value at Risk.

Implement and compare four VaR approaches on a real portfolio. Understand the assumptions behind each model and when each one breaks down — the core of any practical risk workflow.

⬡ Historical simulation VaR
⬡ Normal-parametric VaR
⬡ EWMA-parametric VaR
⬡ GARCH-parametric VaR

04 · Expected Shortfall.

Go beyond VaR. Compute Expected Shortfall (CVaR) — the average loss in the worst α% of days. Understand why regulators and institutions now prefer ES over VaR for tail risk measurement.

⬡ Historical ES from the empirical loss tail
⬡ Normal-parametric ES using the ES formula
⬡ VaR vs ES comparison and interpretation
⬡ Coherent risk measure properties explained

05 · VaR Backtesting.

A VaR model that can't be validated is just a guess. Implement exception counting, Kupiec unconditional coverage test, Christoffersen independence test, and a Basel traffic-light summary.

⬡ VaR exception identification and counting
⬡ Kupiec unconditional coverage (LR test)
⬡ Christoffersen independence test
⬡ Basel traffic-light: Green / Amber / Red zones

Built for three audiences.

Whether you're studying for the FRM, working in risk, or building Python tools — this pack gives you exactly what you need.

🎓

Students & FRM Candidates

Learn the theory and the implementation together — not one without the other. Exercises and answers included.

📊

Risk Analysts & Professionals

A clean, reusable Python module you can adapt for internal workflows. EWMA, GARCH, four VaR models, ES, and Basel backtesting — production-quality implementations.

🐍

Python Developers in Finance

A well-structured reference codebase for financial risk modeling. Clean module architecture, typed functions, and a Streamlit app you can extend or deploy immediately.

Every model that matters for market risk.

The full toolkit for daily market risk measurement — from volatility estimation to regulatory backtesting.

📉

Rolling & EWMA Volatility

21-day rolling vol and RiskMetrics EWMA with configurable lambda. Annualized output, clustering diagnostics, and side-by-side comparison.

⚡

GARCH(1,1) Modeling

Full GARCH estimation via the arch library, conditional volatility extraction, and multi-day forecasting. Fits to any equity, crypto, or FX returns series.

🎯

Four VaR Models

Historical simulation, normal-parametric, EWMA-parametric, and GARCH-parametric VaR. Compare models on the same portfolio in a single function call.

🔭

Expected Shortfall

Historical and parametric ES — the coherent tail risk measure now required under Basel III. Always paired with VaR so you see both metrics together.

✅

VaR Backtesting Suite

Exception counting, Kupiec LR test, Christoffersen independence test, and Basel traffic-light zones. Know whether your model actually works.

One price. Everything included.

No subscriptions. No locked features. Pay once, own it forever.

✦ Complete Pack
Market Risk with Python — Code Pack
Volatility, VaR, ES, and backtesting. For students, analysts, and Python developers.
€39
One-time payment  ·  Instant download  ·  All formats included
✓
5 Jupyter notebooks (returns, EWMA/GARCH, VaR, ES, backtesting)
✓
Reusable market_risk/ Python module (5 files)
✓
Full Streamlit dashboard source code
✓
complete PDF guide / ebook with LaTeX equations
✓
Professor exercises with worked answers
✓
4 VaR models + 2 ES models implemented
✓
Kupiec + Christoffersen backtesting tests
Get the Code Pack — €39 →
Secure checkout via Stripe  · 
🔒 Secure Stripe checkout
⚡ Instant download after payment
♾️ No recurring fees, ever
📓 Jupyter + Python source included

Market risk modeling that actually runs.

Five notebooks. A reusable module. A live dashboard. A complete PDF guide / ebook. Everything to go from zero to a production-quality market risk workflow in Python.